Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
Dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken April 28, 2017. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Nov 16 (Reuters) - Some of the major banks in the world expect global economic growth to slow further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of "mild recessions" in Europe and the UK.
A soft-landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 | ||||||
GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA | |
Goldman Sachs | 2.60% | 2.10% | 4.80% | 0.90% | 0.6% | 6.3% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.80% | 1.90% | 4.20% | 0.50% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
UBS | 2.60% | 1.10% | 4.40% | 0.60% | 0.6% | 6.2% |
Barclays | 2.60% | 1.20% | 4.40% | 0.30% | 0.1% | 6.2% |
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) | Federal funds target rate (Dec '24) | ||
Headline CPI | Core PCE | ||
Goldman Sachs | 2.40% | 2.60% | 5.13% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.10% | 2.70% | 4.375% |
UBS | 2.70% | 2.75% | |
Wells Fargo | 2.50% | 2.60% | 4.75%-5.00% |
Barclays | 2.70% | 5.25%-5.50% |
The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%
S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY | |
Goldman Sachs | 4700 | 4.55% | 1.10 | 150.00 | 7.15 |
Morgan Stanley | 4500 | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
UBS | 4600 | 3.60% | 1.15 | 130 | 7.15 |
Wells Fargo | 4600-4800 | 4.75%-5.25% | 1.08-1.12 | 136-140 | |
Barclays | 4.25% | 1.09 | 145 | 7.20 |
As of 1040 GMT on Nov. 16, 2023:
S&P 500 (.SPX): 4502.88
US 10-year yield : 4.5019%
EUR/USD : 1.084
USD/CNY : 7.248
USD/JPY : 151.27
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Anil D'Silva
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
What is the most important factor in making big money from stock investment?
There is no definitive answer to what is the most important factor in making big money from stock investment, as different investors may have different opinions, preferences, and strategies. However, some common factors that many experts and successful investors agree on are:Patience: Stock investin
What is the fundamental logic of making money from stocks?
The fundamental logic of making money from stocks is to buy low and sell high. This means that you want to buy stocks when they are undervalued by the market, and sell them when they are overvalued by the market. The difference between the selling price and the buying price is your profit.There are
Several General Laws of Stock Market Operation
There are several general laws that govern the operation of the stock market in the United States and other countries. These laws are designed to protect investors, ensure fair and efficient markets, and prevent fraud and manipulation. Some of the most important laws are:The Securities Act of 1933,
How to sell stocks at their highest price
Selling stocks at their highest price is a common goal for many investors and traders, but it is not always easy to achieve. There are many factors that can affect the price of a stock, such as market conditions, company performance, industry trends, news events, and investor sentiment. Therefore, i